Why can the same stock have two prices?
A wrapper may trade below its reference stock because getting money out takes time, trading is difficult, or the holder has fewer rights. This model separates an assumed friction discount from the remaining price difference.
Try the numbers ↓Fix a common reference.
The fictional reference stock costs $150 per share, and one token represents one share. Real comparisons must also align currency, timestamps and token ratios.
Put a price on friction.
The teaching model subtracts 0.1% for every redemption day, plus 0.5% for liquidity and 0.5% for rights. These coefficients are chosen assumptions, not estimates fitted to market data.
Compare the quote with the model.
The remaining difference is shown per token and across your chosen number of tokens. A z-score measures the basis deviation in units of assumed basis volatility; it does not predict convergence.
Model price = $150 × [1 − (0.1% × redemption days + 0.5% + 0.5%)]
A worked example
Five redemption days imply a 1.5% discount, giving a model price of $147.75. A $146 quote is $1.75 below that model. Across 1,000 tokens the model gap is $1,750, before fees and every risk of entering or exiting a trade.